RantDuJour

Ever since the 1st debate, Obama has cranked out a very real lead and has just kept expanding on it. (I did predict this fact in those very early days of the summer when all the pundits kept asking, “why can’t he put this away”? Idiots.) His 30 minute infomercial on Wednesday was so perfect, so finely tuned to what the electorate needs, and so perfectly timed that it will glide him right into a very large win on Tuesday.

My prediction at this point is Obama 55%, McCain 45%. It’ll be a pretty historic win, even beyond the fact that Obama will be the first African-American to win the presidency. McCain has really proved to be such a clown on the campaign trail. Obama has run a magical, superlative, phenomenal campaign. He would have won anyway. A race between him and Bush 2004 would have been great theater. Bush 2004 ran a great campaign. Of course, they still barely beat Kerry. So, Obama would have crushed them. But, McCain hasn’t come close to bush 2004’s great campaign team.

I should also say that the fact that McCain had a really weak field to run against. So did Bush for that matter. It really appears that the gop does not have a deep bench. The fact that the rightwing loves Palin is an indication of just how bereft of ideas (and intelligence) they are. McCain wouldn’t have made it past New Hampshire if he had been a Democrat.

Democrats have great fields. Bright people. Great ideas. And, tons of them! This year, you look at the (early) Democratic primaries with Biden, Dodd, Edwards, Richardson, Clinton, and Obama. Those are solid, serious contenders. Any one of them would be great presidents.

So, my EV prediction goes something like this;
Obama with the normal safe seats + NM, NV, CO, MN, IA, MO, Indiana, Ohio, Virginia, North Carolina, Georgia, Florida, & North Dakota. That brings his EV number to, I think, 393. It’s a bit higher than most people. But, I am giving Obama a couple of points for his ground game. And, I’m giving him 3 points for his African American vote in the southern states. I remember in the primaries that Obama’s southern numbers outpaced his poll numbers by very large numbers. Adding 5 to the poll of polls in the tossup states gives him the numbers that I’m predicting.

Here are pollster.com’s latest polls;

latest polls

And, here is a sample electoral map that I created, thanks to DailyKos,

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Even among Republicans; (Note that I stole this list from a commenter on politico. I don’t vouch for it, though I have heard of most of these.)

Republicants comments about the party’s presumptive nominee, John McCain.

“His temper would place this country at risk in international affairs, and the world perhaps in danger. In my mind, that should disqualify him.” - Former Senator Bob Smith, R-NH
“The thought of his being president sends a cold chill down my spine. He is erratic.” - Senator Thad Cochran, R-MS
“I decided I didn’t want this guy anywhere near a trigger.” - Senator Pete Domenici, R-NM
“There’s nothing redeeming about John McCain…he’s a hypocrite.” - Former House GOP Whip Tom DeLay
“He is a vicious person. They so disliked him that they wouldn’t support him.” - Former Representative Charles LeBoutillier, R-NY
“What happens if he gets angry in crisis in the presidency? It’s the president’s job to negotiate and stay calm. I just don’t see that he has that quality.” - Former Arizona GOP Chairman John Hinz
“John McCain is Bob Dole minus the charm, conservatism, and youth. Unlike McCain, Dole didn’t lie all the time while claiming to engage in ’straight talk.’” - Conservative blowhard Ann Coulter
“Hardheaded is one way to say it. Arrogant is another way to say it. Hubristic is another way to say it. Too proud for his own good is another way to say it. It’s a quality about him that disturbs me.” - Larry Wilkerson, former chief aide to Colin Powell
An “embarrassment to the party.” - Arizona GOP State Senator Susan Johnson
“I don’t like him at all.” - Rep. Tom Tancredo, R-CO
“It just seems like everything we did, John was someplace else…In my mind, he is not a conservative.” - Former House Speaker Dennis Hastert, R-IL
“He is the anti-conservative. He instinctively sides against conservatives and relishes poking them in the eye.” - Conservative blowhard David Limbaugh
“If either John McCain or Mike Huckabee gets the nomination, it’s going to destroy the Republican Party, it’s going to change it forever, be the end of it.” - Conservative blowhard Rush Limbaugh

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Well, it was a long time coming. Obama had it won after Super Tuesday. And, then, he ran off 11 straight caucus victories. And, still Clinton didn’t give up. Part of this is admirable, of course, The part that wasn’t were the personal attacks th at will go straiight to McCain’s fall ads.

Tonight was an achievement of historic proportions. Here was a first-term senator who beat Hillary Clinton. Clinton had this thing won. I was hoping that Edwards would take her out. And, perhaps, he might have. But, he was really too angry. He was hitting all the right notes, but he offered no hope. Obama didn’t hit the angry notes, but he hits the hope notes. The contrast between Obama and Clinton is dramatic. She just comes off as a normal politician. But, she had all the advantages. She had the connections. She had the money. She theoretically had the best people.

But, then, Mark Penn started running her campaign. What a moron. She probably would have lost anyway. But, I’m not sure. Obama is truly an exceptional candidate.  An unbelievably speaker. A man of incredible intelligence. A man that has the brains to run a perfect campaign. As far as the issues goes, he’s too far to the right for me. But, you can’t see that from what he says. It’s perfect. And, now, he is in perfect position to tack to the center and pick up an even larger number of independents and republicans.

Again, I don’t see McCain getting more than 100 EVs. He’s really a bad candidate. It doesn’t matter how good the people around him are, and they aren’t very good. It doesn’t matter how viscious the rightwing 527 groups are and they are viscious. McCain will make msitake after mistake after mistake. He has nothing to run on besides Bush 3.

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Really. I’ll throw in my Pennsylvania prediction in a later post. But, for now, I’m building into a rant on how the media coddles McCain. It boggles my mind that the media gave him a standing ovation for some event that he showed up to. It boggles my mind that Stephanopolous and Gibson belittled their audience with such pathetic questioning. But, this you tube video, found at The War Room on Salon.com really hits my buttons.

Again and again, we see the beltway media fall in love with people with money (except, of course, for the Clintons who they despise.)  So, it doesn’t matter that McCain contradicts himself in every sentence. It doesn’t matter that he’s a doddering old man who can barely complete a thought.  It doesn’t matter that he’s not a maverick. It doesn’t matter that his empathy with the working man is an unbelievable joke. It doesn’t matter that McCain is so hypocritical as to take one’s breath away. It doesn’t even matter that he has treated women like trash his entire life. What matters to the beltway group is that he won’t take away their capital gains tax cut (thank you for lying about this, Charlie Gibson.)

If you want a pretty unbiased commentator who will show you how t hese people think, listen to Bob Brinker (Weekend archives from 1-4pm). All Bob cares about is money. He doesn’t care about people or government programs or the American way. His only goal is maximizing his profits. So, anything that gets in the way of that, will get his goat. (Talk about a guy that reminds one of the grandpa Simpson!) He has ripped bush for the war because it costs him money. Lives are not so important. Needless to say, he is merciless to the Democratic candidates. Of course, like most fiscal conservatives, he doesn’t let facts get in his way. Clinton raised taxes on the wealthy in the ’90s and the economy boomed out of this world. But, it’s Reagan with his alleged tax cuts that excites Bob.  This is your beltway media, just they’re a bit more polished about it.

McCain’s $100+M wealth and his tax cut mantra is enough to keep the beltway kids lying about him.

I cannot wait for the primary to be over so that Obama and his running mate can start ripping him. Every day that McCain doesn’t get attacked is a free day for him. Obama gets ripped twice a day. McCain gets basically a free pass. His negatives have to go down. It’s time for him to be buried.

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In some many ways. The way that I want to discuss right now is Guantanamo. It is inconceivable (”that word does mean what I think that it means”) to me that what is being done in Guantanamo can be defended in any way, shape, or form. Even if these guys were guilty of something 5 or so years ago, our treatment of them is illegal, unconstitutional, and immoral. In addition to the ongoing illegal torture or these people, the “trials” are mock. Here is a story that is a clear example of just how wrong it is what we’re doing at Guantanamo. Why is this allowed to happen? How do the people who are driving this behavior live with themselves? The US government and the military brass are criminals. We didn’t need to have direct evidence that the highest levels of our government were involved in torture, but fascinating that after 5 years, we now have that. These people are brutal, unconstitutional thugs. These are the same people who were running the Nazi government back in the ’30s. These are the same people who lynched black people in the 1900s in the south. These are the people who are in charge.
I don’t know for sure what McCain would do if, god forbid, he got into office. I do know that he has done everything that he could to support these people.
I have been disgusted for years. I can’t get more disgusted.

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One of the things that I really appreciate about McCain’s campaign is that, for the most part, he is talking about what he wants to do as President. He slips. He slides. He can’t remember from one day to the next what he was talking about. He’s a dithering old fool. However, he is, for the most part, honest. Contrast McCain’s campaign with bush’s two campaigns. Bush’s plan was to lie repeatedly to the American people. And, since he had the media in his pocket, he really got away with it. Can you imagine what would have happened had Bush been honest in 2000? If he had said that he was going to implement PNAC? He was going to invade Iraq and take it over? He was going to spy on Americans because he doesn’t believe in the constitution. He was going to torture whomever he wants because he is so incredibly stupid as to believe that torture can produce results. He will proactively work on a virulent anti-choice program. He will promote morons to high public office. He will push judges who think that we belong back in the 18th century.

What a different campaign that would be! Almost honesty would have given Gore and Kerry victories in virtual landslides. And, because McCain doesn’t see or doesn’t care that the polls show him on the losing side of every single issue that he believes in, plus his temper will lose even more votes, there’s really no way for Democrats to lose the presidency in November. And, if it’s a smart campaign, i.e. Obama, it should be a landslide.

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“who constantly explodes. ….If McCain is the president, we’ll be in Iraq for 100 years. We’ll be at war with Iran.”

 Who said this? Was it Obama? Clinton? Reid? Pelosi? Edwards?

No.

These quotes are by Pat Buchanan.

Nobody likes McCain. And, why should they?

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http://emptywheel.firedoglake.com/2008/04/07/a-trollop-and-a-ct/

The Real McCain by Cliff Schecter, which will arrive in bookstores next month, reports an angry exchange between McCain and his wife that happened in full view of aides and reporters during a 1992 campaign stop. An advance copy of the book was obtained by RAW STORY.

Three reporters from Arizona, on the condition of anonymity, also let me in on another incident involving McCain’s intemperateness. In his 1992 Senate bid, McCain was joined on the campaign trail by his wife, Cindy, as well as campaign aide Doug Cole and consultant Wes Gullett. At one point, Cindy playfully twirled McCain’s hair and said, “You’re getting a little thin up there.” McCain’s face reddened, and he responded, “At least I don’t plaster on the makeup like a trollop, you cunt.” McCain’s excuse was that it had been a long day. If elected president of the United States, McCain would have many long days.

 

McCain is bad enough with his wacko rightwing ideas and his foot-in-his-mouth a day speeches and his complete misunderstanding of what is going on in Iraq. But, his temper and his inability to control himself is really another key issue to understanding how bad a candidate, and a human being, John McCain is. Imagine even using that word outside of theoretically discussions, but imagine using to your own spouse, in public!! And, in response to a really, really minor bit of teasing.

What a f’ing idiot.

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Hillary is toast. She is irrelevant. It’s time for Obama to start paying attention to his GE opponent, John McCain. Hillary can be safely ignored. She is losing. She has almost lost. The only thing that needs to be protected is that Obama needs to come in close in Pennsylvania and the remaining states and keeping ahold of the supers. That can be done while he’s attacking McCain.

And, McCain definitely needs to be attacked. He’s got more positives than he deserves. He is anathema to over 70% of the population. His constant missteps are ripe for attacks. If he gets away with them, the media sure isn’t going to address these issues, then he coasts into the fall with a decent negative rating. Meanwhile, Clinton and her disgusting surrogates will be bring Obama’s negatives up.

Obama has no choice. He can’t really go toe to toe with Clinton. What can he gain? She’s gone. He has to go for McCain’s jugular. And, in doing so, he’ll convince the super delegates that he is really ready for the general election.

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I don’t see how he wins this thing. Even given the rightwing’s hate-mongering, slimy racist attack machine. Here’s how I break it down;

1. Starting with Bush’s 2004 victory numbers, i.e. barely over the top of beatup John Kerry. Subtract the unbelievably enthusiastic evangelical turnout. No way McCain has that. Subtract off hardcore rightwingers. He has pissed these guys off too many times for them to go to the polls in droves in November. Subtract off moderate Republicans who are sick and tired of the Republican machine and its constant series of mistakes. There might even be a bunch in there who care about the state of the constitution and will refuse to support a Republican in the mold of bush the law-breaking disaster. Subtract off any Republicans who care about fiscal sanity. This might be more of a stretch, because these guys keep going back to the GOP. But, McCain, while he talks tough about the state of the finances in government is really running on bush’s 3rd term. And, nobody likes what bush has done, aside from about 15% of the hard core electorate. And, those are the guys who aren’t happy with McCain.

So, McCain is down a ton from 2004. Where does he get it back? Well, even if the rightwing, beltway media continues its ’straight-talk’ lie about McCain, 75% of the electorate, meaning an even higher percentage of Independents, don’t like this war in Iraq. As long as Obama can convince these people that he will actually concentrate on the War on Terrorism, they will vote Democratic. McCain, Mr. “Straight Talker”, won’t get any of those. And, seeing as how Obama is a mainstream Democrat, i.e. not on the left side, he will be able to tack more to the middle during the campaign without losing anyone on the left, so moderate Democrats won’t feel like they need to vote McCain.

What this boils down to, even before I get to what Obama will bring to the table, is a landslide loss for McCain.

You can toss in the fact that he’s 72. He makes mistakes daily on the campaign trail. He’s ‘bomb, bomb, bomb Iran’ schtick didn’t get that much attention before, but once it goes mainstream, it’ll turn everyone off except the people who think that what we’re doing in Iraq is a good thing.

His anti-choice, anti-environment (0% rating), anti-health-care, anti-government speal will kill off anyone else who has any doubts.

He’s toast.

Now, we just have to wait 9 more long months to watch it play out.

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