Admin Stuff 9:37 pm
I apologize profusely to those who took the time to comment. I wasn’t aware that this blog software held up comments until I approved them before they posted. And, I never received any notification of any comments. It’s to prevent spam, and I was able to block a ton of it. But, I should have checked the ‘manage’ link before now!
So, I’ve approved the pent up comments. Hopefully, it’s not too late to engage in a discussion!
Obama 9:33 pm
These are interesting times we live in. Had a bunch of things to add to the blog, but came across this blog today and had to post a link. Very nicely done you-tube thing, Bob Cesca’s montage.
I’ve been inundated with people who have been calling Obama a lightweight. And, while I hesitate to cast aspersions, I have a tendency to put them into the Geraldine Ferrarro category. That is, people who have their minds made up to support Clinton and don’t care to know anything about her, far superior, opponent. They like to play gotcha games by saying, ‘Name his accomplishments”. I hesitate to use a loaded term like racism. In fact, I don’t necessarily believe that they are racists. They just don’t want to believe that Hillary is being beat by a legitimate candidate. And, in fact, I believe now that Obama is really a remarkable candidate. A person who, while I don’t agree with all of his positions, has a very real possibilty of transforming a country. (And, on the selfish side, burying the Republicans for a generation or more.)
But, these people don’t see this Obama. The Obama that I see. And, I’m not really one who is in the tank for him. Look at my previous posts. I came to Obama more as someone who was completely turned off by the campaign that Clinton has been running. But, the more that I watch the man, the more that I see him under the extreme pressure of this campaign, the more that he is able to handle Clinton’s viscious, scurilous, slanderous, lame attacks, the more that he just goes about his business, handling everything with style and grace, the more that I have moved from choosing him for being the opponent of Clinton to being in favor of Obama.
There are plenty of ways to look up Obama’s accomplishments, if one really wanted to. The first summary that I saw was a pretty objective tv special on MSNBC. They went through Obama’s life and that’s what originally convinced me that he was sufficiently experienced to handle the job as president. One never really knows for sure. I mean even I who knew that bush was bad in 1999, never for a moment dreamed that he would be as completely pathetic as he has turned out to be. And, as a in-the-tank Clinton supporter in 1992, I never dreamed that he would such a lot of trouble his first couple of years. I knew that there was a learning curve, but Clinton really made it tough. And, he made such poor decisions.
However, Obama really seems to make the right decisions, time and time again. And, he makes them quickly. There’s not a lot of dithering going on. Agree or disagree with his decision to can Samantha Powers, but it was immediate. Of course, she was just a volunteer, but you look at Clinton’s decisions. They appear to take days to vet out. Ferrarro’s comments were inexusable in her first published interview. But, Clinton took 2-3 days to realize how toxic they were and to can her. And, then, we had to deal with Ferrarro’s tantrum across the airwaves for another day before, it appears, she just went away.
So, before giving a summary and some links for Obama’s accomplishments, I wanted to identify a few that are immediately apparent after watching him since he announced for the presidency. These are not trivial. Aside from the obvious decisiveness, his ability to put together a $150M+ national campaign from scratch is nothing to be sneezed at. Clinton had one already existing and she has run it poorly. Others cannot get one up and running without serious problems. And, everyone else is running a campaign, more local than national, with far less money and thus far less ability to do things. Obama has reached out across this country, put together teams in every single state and has everyone on the same page. And, he did this with no help from the national Democrats, no help from previous campaigns (or administrations), no help from anyone except his own ability to organize. This accomplishment is nothing to sneeze at. It is unbelievably impressive. I would point to the very heavily competed in Iowa as an example of how he beat out such great teams as Clintons and Edwards who had been running in Iowa for at least 4 years as an example of how great Obama is. But, to me, the real example is Super Tuesday. He won more states than Hillary Clinton. Granted he couldn’t beat her in the big states, but those states take time to move people, as Obama shows when he gets the time to campaign in a state. But, Obama took his money and he organized winning teams in 11 or 12 states out of 20 Super Tuesday states. Clinton, with the knowledge and money and power and years of preparation, got her butt handed to her. If she were a guy, I’d say that she got spanked.
Anyway, for a list of his legislative accomplishments, I’ll point to Andrew Sullivan, of all people; http://andrewsullivan.theatlantic.com/the_daily_dish/2008/02/dear-chris-matt.html. Sullivan lists the following;
From another blog, there are these;
that created a searchable database of recipients of federal contracts and grants, proposing legislation on avian flu back when most people hadn’t even heard of it, working to make sure that soldiers returning from Iraq and Afghanistan were screened for traumatic brain injury and to prevent homelessness among veterans, successfully fighting a proposal by the VA to reexamine all PTSD cases in which full benefits had been awarded, working to ban no-bid contracts in Katrina reconstruction, and introducing legislation to criminalize deceptive political tactics and voter intimidation. And there he was again, introducing a tech plan …
His signature accomplishment in the state legislature was this one;
“Consider a bill into which Obama clearly put his heart and soul. The problem he wanted to address was that too many confessions, rather than being voluntary, were coerced — by beating the daylights out of the accused.
Obama proposed requiring that interrogations and confessions be videotaped.”
He had to work hard with Republicans to get this bill through the legislature and signed. And, he did.
There are a lot more. But, frankly, this is far more than Clinton has. It’s far more than bush had. It’s far more that Bill Clinton had. It’s far more than Ronald Reagan had (which involved destroying California’s educational system for generations.)
Next time someone wants to tag Obama as a empty suit, they should actually take the time to do some research on him first. Otherwise, they look dumb.
McCain and Obama and Clinton 11:36 pm
Hillary is toast. She is irrelevant. It’s time for Obama to start paying attention to his GE opponent, John McCain. Hillary can be safely ignored. She is losing. She has almost lost. The only thing that needs to be protected is that Obama needs to come in close in Pennsylvania and the remaining states and keeping ahold of the supers. That can be done while he’s attacking McCain.
And, McCain definitely needs to be attacked. He’s got more positives than he deserves. He is anathema to over 70% of the population. His constant missteps are ripe for attacks. If he gets away with them, the media sure isn’t going to address these issues, then he coasts into the fall with a decent negative rating. Meanwhile, Clinton and her disgusting surrogates will be bring Obama’s negatives up.
Obama has no choice. He can’t really go toe to toe with Clinton. What can he gain? She’s gone. He has to go for McCain’s jugular. And, in doing so, he’ll convince the super delegates that he is really ready for the general election.
I did see that the polls started trending back towards Clinton thru the weekend and into Tuesday. I was resigned to her winning Ohio by the time that Tuesday rolled around. (I should have updated my predictions!) But, I still was sure that Obama would win Texas. That was a shock and a big disappointment. I really wanted to close the door on Hillary yesterday.
I believe that these races changed because of two things; Hillary’s stoking of the non-existent Obama advisor talking to the Canadians about Nafta flap. This was a lie generated by the rightwing head of the Canadian government. Hillary didn’t care. She doesn’t care what she destroys as long as she wins. So, she won Ohio going away, by 10 points.
Texas apparently was won by the 3am phone call ad. That, at least, was legitimate. I don’t agree with the conclusions (really, Hillary over Obama? Really?) but, at least the ad didn’t take the low road. It just was very debatable and ultimately it helps McCain would could take that ad verbatim and run it for himself in the general.
So, I’m disappointed. And, I’m depressed about the Democrats chances in November. I still dont’ see how McCain pulls it out against either Hillary or Obama, but this gives him more of a chance, I think. And, it does because Clinton keeps hitting Obama low. So, rather than have a high-minded debate, which she will lose, she plays dirty. Obama, however, has to learn to deal with this type of disgusting attacks. It’s just too bad that Hillary didn’t show her slimy side long before now. As long as Obama learns how to deal with low-blows and hard hits, he should be fine. He has to attack her back.
Obama 12:06 pm
Damm. Damm. Damm. Damm.
Damm. Damm. Damm. Damm.
Damm. Damm. Damm. Damm.
Damm. Damm. Damm. Damm.
Damm. Damm. Damm. Damm.
Damm. Damm. Damm. Damm.
Obama 3:40 pm
Becomes the presumptive Democratic nominee on March 5.
Beats McCain in a landslide for the following reasons;
1. He is so presidential. He is unbelievably articulate. His positions are dead into the middle of mainstream American, i.e. to the right of me. He is a streamlined, polished Clinton in ‘92 without all the baggage.
2. Starting with Kerry’s numbers, add in; the vast majority of the Independent vote. These are usually people who don’t pay close attention to politics. So, what they’ll see are the 7 second soundbites and some of the debates. Obama obliterates McCain in all those areas. Independents are driving the war in Iraq = good numbers down. Obama says we get out, but we get out in a reasonable fashion. His opponent says we stay there forever and we bomb Iran while we’re at it. Obama says we finish the job in Afganistan, i.e. continue our war on Terrorism. These are all pitched perfectly to the Independents.
2b. His based is beyond enthusiastic. The record numbers coming from the primaries are not records by small amounts. These are obliteration numbers. People are so much more interested in politics now, because of the bush disaster, than they have ever been before. Democrats who sat on the sidelines with Gore and Kerry because of…well, several reasons, are not only coming out to vote in huge, _HUGE_ numbers, but they are bringing along all their relatives. Democrats alone would push Obama into delivering a landslide, without the afore-mentioned Independents.
2c. Moderate Republicans. They have been sidelined by this administration. Spit on by this administration. Told that they are traitors if they dont’ support this administration. These people who bush counted on for victories in 2000 and 2004 are tired of being treated like dirt. They will vote for some fresh air, Obama, rather than stale air, McCain. These people could easily be Democrats, if they realized that their party left them 20 years ago.
2d. 50 state strategy baby. Dean has done a brilliant job. And, he has done a brilliant job in the face of the the hack DLC ripping him constantly. It is the 50 state strategy that will help Obama compete in and take states that nobody that was doable 4 years ago.
2e. Obama’s 50 state strategy. Obama has a grass roots organizing group that is second to none. We see it in all the caucus’s that he won by landslide proportions. These people are hyped. They are pumped. They are stoked. They not only will go to the polls in November, but they will organize their hearts out to get Obama elected in November. Neither Gore nor Kerry had this going for them.
2f. Obama’s campaign team is second to none. Rather than go with the tired beltway consultants that have caused the 2 Democrats to crash and burn, Obama has started anew. Rather than kowtow to the DLC mentality, he has struck his own path. These guys are great.
So, bottom line, the base will deliver a knockout blow on its own for Obama. Independents will pile on pushing Obama’s numbers into the stratosphere. And, moderate Republicans will deliver the coup de grace.
I predict a 58-42 Obama victory in November.
Clinton 3:24 pm
She’s done.
Tuesday, March 4 predictions;
Texas: Obama blowout. 58-41
Ohio: Obama win, 53-48
Vermont: Obama blowout
RI: Clinton win (god knows why, but the last poll that I saw had Clinton up by 20. I dont’ see how Obama erases that. I wonder if RI is filled with white women over 35 who make less than $40k/year.)
The sound that you hear from the campaign is her thrashing around looking for a non-existent way out. It’s sad, really. And, I do feel badly for her. But, the campaign stunk to high heaven. And, Clinton, I hate to say, really got shrill. It’s such a dammed stereotypical, but I can’t think of a better word. Nothing encapsulates my depth of feeling for Hillary more than her press conference 2 days after the Texas debate where she had her tantrun, saying, “Shame on you, Barack Obama”. The fact that the what she was complaining about was typical campaign literature that didn’t really push the envelope and the fact that her campaign has done worse (picture of Obama in Somali garb to Drudge? Really?), is irrelevant. It was a very painful tantrum to watch. And, it caused me to go over completely to Obama’s camp (if I wasn’t there already.) It wasn’t presidential. It wasn’t the right reaction. It wasn’t even what an adult would do.
Time for Hillary to go.
I don’t see how he wins this thing. Even given the rightwing’s hate-mongering, slimy racist attack machine. Here’s how I break it down;
1. Starting with Bush’s 2004 victory numbers, i.e. barely over the top of beatup John Kerry. Subtract the unbelievably enthusiastic evangelical turnout. No way McCain has that. Subtract off hardcore rightwingers. He has pissed these guys off too many times for them to go to the polls in droves in November. Subtract off moderate Republicans who are sick and tired of the Republican machine and its constant series of mistakes. There might even be a bunch in there who care about the state of the constitution and will refuse to support a Republican in the mold of bush the law-breaking disaster. Subtract off any Republicans who care about fiscal sanity. This might be more of a stretch, because these guys keep going back to the GOP. But, McCain, while he talks tough about the state of the finances in government is really running on bush’s 3rd term. And, nobody likes what bush has done, aside from about 15% of the hard core electorate. And, those are the guys who aren’t happy with McCain.
So, McCain is down a ton from 2004. Where does he get it back? Well, even if the rightwing, beltway media continues its ’straight-talk’ lie about McCain, 75% of the electorate, meaning an even higher percentage of Independents, don’t like this war in Iraq. As long as Obama can convince these people that he will actually concentrate on the War on Terrorism, they will vote Democratic. McCain, Mr. “Straight Talker”, won’t get any of those. And, seeing as how Obama is a mainstream Democrat, i.e. not on the left side, he will be able to tack more to the middle during the campaign without losing anyone on the left, so moderate Democrats won’t feel like they need to vote McCain.
What this boils down to, even before I get to what Obama will bring to the table, is a landslide loss for McCain.
You can toss in the fact that he’s 72. He makes mistakes daily on the campaign trail. He’s ‘bomb, bomb, bomb Iran’ schtick didn’t get that much attention before, but once it goes mainstream, it’ll turn everyone off except the people who think that what we’re doing in Iraq is a good thing.
His anti-choice, anti-environment (0% rating), anti-health-care, anti-government speal will kill off anyone else who has any doubts.
He’s toast.
Now, we just have to wait 9 more long months to watch it play out.