It is obvious to me now, after Super Tuesday, that there is really nothing to stop Obama from winning the nomation. And, then after winning the nomination, there is really nothing stopping Obama from beating McCain with a stick.

First, the DNC nomination.  It’s very obvious where the momentum is. Clinton was up 20 points all across the country just a couple of weeks ago. On Tuesday, Obama won 14 states, with New Mexico still in the balance. The states that are having an election on Saturday favor Obama pretty big.

Second, money. Obama is rolling in it. Obama keeps rolling in it. $30M just last month. Another $5 or $6M in the last couple of days. Clinton, OTOH, has no money.  She had to loan herself a huge amount of money just to stay in it through Super Tuesday. She has her people working without pay. She cannot continue this way. Once the losses continue, any remaining contributions will dry up completely. I don’t see her surviving more than a couple of weeks more. I know that all the ‘experts’ are saying that this will last for months. I just don’t see it.

Third, Obama’s supporters are coming from all over. He has supporters from all walks of life, both genders, all races, all parties, everywhere. Clinton’s support is really only coming from old line Democrats. Her win in New Hampshire was more of a poke in the eye to the media which was beating up her for her tears. It hasn’t continued. CA and NY, I attribute to momemtum.

Fourth, the general election. Harken back to what I said about Obama’s support. He has support from everywhere.  Most importantly, Obama has support from Independents and moderate Republicans. Even after the gop attacks him legitimately for having no experience, I don’t think that that will buy McCain that many votes. Obama has general appeal, a great presence, a great way of talking. He has charisma.

Obama has other advantages as well. Because he has minimal experience, he has no real hypocrisy to catch him on. He has no record.  Edwards hit him on the worst thing that Obama had, i.e. he voted ‘present’ on a bunch of anti-choice laws in the state Senate of Ill. Yawn. If it didn’t make a difference to the primary voters, it definitely won’t make a difference to the general election voters.

Fifth, McCain. McCain is currently viewed as a ’straight talker’. it’s a myth. Any decent campaign will expose him as not a straight talker. His biggest problems however lie in the area where he hasn’t flipped back and forth. He wants the war in Iraq to go on 100 years. That won’t fly with 72% of the population. Iraq floats around between the 1st subject on people’s minds to the 3rd thing on people’s minds. But, it never gets lower than 3rd. And, McCain’s opinion alone, along with his ’surge’ mentality, will turn off a ton of people.

McCain believes in lower taxes. The majority of the population wants the budget back in balance. Lower taxes aren’t going to cut it.

Remember when I said earlier that Clinton has a lot of people who should support her, who are categorically opposed to her? They won’t vote for her regardless of what she does. It’s not her fault. It just is. Well, McCain has that problem with his base. The 20%+ of the population that are pro-war who should be completely behind him are not. Then there are those evangelicals, who should come out in droves for the GOP nominee, won’t vote for McCain. They’re a solid 10-15% too, with some overlap of the 1st group. Tack on the fact that Obama is a pretty religious guy. I haven’t heard him talk about religion, but I’ve heard some religious people talk about how they like the way that Obama talks. Remember too that bush needed all his evagelical support both in 2000 and 2004 to win his narrow, oh so narrow, “wins”.  Anything short of that, and the Democrat wins.

Democrats are leading on every single topic that is interesting to the electorate. Obama espouses all of those wins. Even Obama’s cautious health care plan will win in the general election. Clinton’s is a lot more controversial. Clinton is a lot more controversial. Everything that Clinton does is a lot more controversial.  Obama takes an opposite approach.

I just don’t see a path where Obama doesn’t win the nomination and the general election.

Thank god.