RantDuJour

A long time ago, say Super Tuesday (Feb 5), I was a John Edwards supporter. John, however, didn’t get the support that he needed to compete. So, he dropped out. That left me without a candidate. I had to choose between Clinton and Obama. Since I hadn’t really been paying that close of attention to either, after having made my choice, I gave it some time to choose. At that point, I was leaning Clinton. In fact, I was very surprised that she hadn’t already put the election away. She was leading by such large margins all the way through the summer and into the fall.

So, I watched. I paid attention. I think that I was inclined on Feb 5, to support Clinton for the following reasons;

1. She has more experience. I didn’t grant her as many years as she gives herself. I don’t believe that her 8 years as 1st lady counts for that much. But, it does count for something. She’s been there. She’s been around the big decisions. Etc.

2. She has fought the gop for years. This is a plus. She has been absolutely vetted. She has a war room response team of her own. She knows how the gop will come at her.

3. I really felt that the country was more ready for a female president than a black president. It was a dumb reason. And, I wasn’t completely sold on it. But, it seemed reasonable at the time.

I felt that there was no real difference between her positions and Obama’s positions. So, there was no win there. I didn’t like Obama lauding Reagan and dissing Bill.  However, OTOH, I really didn’t like Clinton’s support of the war. And, I didn’t like defense of that vote.

However, after a couple of more debates and after watching a few more rallies and watching Clinton’s campaign go about its business for a few more weeks, I started leaning Obama. I didn’t like the way that Clinton is thrashing about. I liked what Obama is saying. I was impressed by his team’s organizational ability and his wins in all these states. It shows that Obama is really ready to run in all 50 states. Clinton is not. I was impressed by Obama’s fundraising. It shows that he can go on through the election without worrying about money. Clinton had to loan herself money and she took in 1/3 of what Obama took in in January.  I was impressed by the Republicans and Independents who have said that they will vote for Obama. It was the exact opposite for Clinton. She will have a hard time holding onto her own party in a general election matching. She’ll lose Independents by droves.

And, then, came the coup de grace. Her campaign started attacking Obama for the most petty of charges. Plagerism? Really?

So, I went over completely to Obama. I just donated money and signed up on his webpage. In the end, I really don’t like Clinton anymore.  I have grown to be disgusted by her and her campaign. I find her flailing about to be pathetic.

OTOH, I have grown to really like Obama. I like the way that he is handling Clinton. I like the way that his political machine continues to roll.  I like the way that he handles McCain. I like his chances against the 70+ YO McCain. I don’t have the same optimism for Clinton.

Furthermore, Obama has won 11+ elections. He won more elections on Super Tuesday. The ones that he didn’t win are the ones that he just couldn’t spend the time necessary to change people’s minds from their earlier conviction that Clinton was the one.

Obama has done well and deserves the nomination. Clinton hasn’t done well and hasn’t presented herself well. She doesn’t deserve the nomination.

She can stick around until she loses on March 4. But, she’d better do the right thing and ’suspend’ her campaign on March 5.

Yes. We. Can.

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As a former Edwards supporter, I’ve taken my time to decide on an alternative. And, to be frank. the rabidness of the Obama supporters has turned me off. However, at this point, it appears pretty obvious that Obama is the superior choice.  I come to this conclusion with several reasons.

1st. Hillary has run a very poor campaign. As an observer who had his candidate (Edwards) I was able to watch, without bias, the 2 leaders run their campaigns. It was clear to me that between the two; Obama and Clinton, Obama had the far superior campaign. He had better organization, better crowds, better arguments, better positions, better history, and better counter-punching. In short, it was a no brainer, in the end, who was my second choice.

2nd, Obama is really bringing in a larger majority. It’s obvious that Democrats need to expand their majority. It’s obvious that they (we) have a majority. But, it’s equally obvious that there are a ton of Independents there for the taking. Bush has alienated all but an extreme minority of people. If the Democratic candidate can win over these Independents, Democrats will have the clear majority for years, perhaps decades. Bush has opened the door for this with his complete incompetence and arrogance. We need a candidate who will take advantage of this. Obama can and does. Clinton does not.

3rd, Obama has convinced the majority of Democrats that he is the right guy to carry the  Democratic banner. Clinton’s lone victorties, California, New York, and some other miscellaneous victories, are a result of a day in which 22 contests appeared on the same day. That’s hard for an unknown to deal with. Obama won more states and lost the other states by not that much. And, then, he went on to win the next 10 contests. It’s hard to see how Clinton can defend a Democratic nomination based on a couple of large state victories on Super Tuesday. I don’t see how she even wins Texas and Ohio despite having huge leads not that long ago. So, she’s won nothing and will win nothing and expects, what, the superdelegates to bail her out? I dont’ think so.

Anyway, it’s obvious that Clinton cannot win. It’s obvious that the Democratic electorate has moved beyond her. As much as I used to like her, I don’t see the Hillary in the campaign that I used to like. And, to put the cherry on this picture, I really don’t like the way that she’s been spending her campaign’s money. Obama, OTOH, has really chosen his spending wisely. It’s time for him to take over the nomination.

Hillary cannot win over moderate Republicans. She cannot win over Independents. These people are ripe for the taking. Democrats need these people. Obama is the guy to do this.  

It’s time for Hillary to go.

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Plagerism? Really? That’s what you’re going to go with, “Hillary”?

You had a less whiny approach when you had all your surrogates go out with the ’solutions’ whine. It was lame, but at least it didn’t stink of pure desperation.

I hope that the voters are seeing through these attacks. It’s a shame that “Hillary” has come to this. Before she started campaining, I was definitely a fan. But, as this primary season has gone on, I’ve gone more and more into the Obama camp. I’m inclined at this point to start sending him money when before I was really agnostic.

The plagerism attack really hit new lows, in my book. It’s like Obama is being attacked by Republicans. You know that Republicans can’t win an election legitimately. So, they resort to these incredible lies, that, amazingly, enough people believe. Can you imagine that there were people out there who not only didn’t believe that John Kerry was a multi-decorated war hero, but that he was a traitor? I can’t be disgusted enough by the Republicans, but I really never expected a Democrat, a Democrat that I used to respect, to sink down to their depths.

It doesn’t help that Hillary is giving the GOP attack machine lines that they can steal for the general election.  I’m sure that they can come up with their own, but the fact that she has done the groundwork for them is really bad. She can only trumpet her desperate attacks so loudly, but the GOP machine, with its minions in the mainstream media and all the lines leading up to them, can really make the noise deafening.

It’s time for Hillary to go. Their whole schtick is too tired, too 90s, too old school. She is too annoying.

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I’ve been pretty objective, or have tried to be, on the subject of Obama and Hillary. I don’t really care for either of them. I like bits of both of them, but neither of them do much for me. I was a huge John Edwards fan. Neither of these guys hit my buttons, any of them really, like he did. Actually, the person who came close was Michelle Obama. But, she’s not running.

And, since I voted for Edwards, my talking about Hillary and Obama is more a parlour game than anything else. I’m not that wed to the result. I will be voting for whomever wins.  So, I can watch without passion.

However, that having been said, I have to say that as Hillary’s campaign has gone on, I have grown to like her less. Her voice, her mannerisms, the points that she brings out in her speeches all have really turned me off.  And, I haven’t even touched on her supporters actions. I don’t like a lot of things about Obama. But, I am definitely at the point where, even aside from the fact that I think that Obama would do better in the General Election and do better governing than Hillary, I don’t want her to win.

So, even though there really isn’t any significant difference between the two candidates, I really prefer Obama. I don’t know whether the country is really ready to elect an African-American for president. But, I do know that my preference is to try.

I really thought that the country would be more ready to elect a woman than an African-American. However, not this woman. She is wrong on so many levels. And, I really never thought that I’d go that way. I had so much respect for her before she started her campaign. Now, I can’t wait for her to just go away.

It’s so sad.

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It’s bad enough that she’s lost 8 (or more) elections in a row, but what really is an impact is the margin of her losses. They are huge. Obama is getting upwards from 60% in every election. The fact that the delegates are still close really just indicates that the primary system is flawed. It needs an overhaul. For one thing, the ’super-delegates’ have far too much power. For another thing, winning a state should be worth a bunch. Just splitting up Congressional districts isn’t enough. The winner needs to have a stranglehold on the delegates for that state.

Anyway, back to Hillary. Do we really want our nominee to be a person who has lost the vast number of state elections? And, lost them by a ton? She has now lost over 21 states. She has won 10. Her big victories are really California and New York. If the pundits hadn’t made fun of her in New Hampshire, she would have lost that as well.

The eventual nominee can lose some states to a strong competitor. Or, even lose some states to multiple competitors. But, losing a ton of states, by large margins, to one competitor? That just doesn’t work for me.  If you look at the states that Hillary has won, her margin of victory hasn’t been that great. She won pretty big in CA. But, didn’t get over 60%. Obama is winning almost all of his elections  by over 60%.

Obviously, in my mind, Obama should be the nominee. And, equally obviously, Clinton shouldn’t drag this out. We need to wrap this up and start up the general election.

March 5 is her last day. It is time for Hillary to go. Sorry Hillary.

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We have 2 candidates who are legitimate and who are adults. As opposed to the Republicans who will not coalesce behind their presumptive nominee, whomever wins (*cough* *cough* Obama *cough* *cough) will get universal Democratic support. And, since it will be Obama who wins, he’ll get a signficant chunk of Independent support as well.

But, this will not go all the way to the convention, even though neither candidate can win enough to clinch it before them.  Because they are both adults (as opposed to Huckabee), one of them (*cough* *cough* Clinton *cough* *cough*) will recognize the obvious and will “suspend” her campaign.

She will not want to hurt the Democratic party. Not to mention that she will want to maintain her viability inside the Democratic party. Once she “suspends”, she will earn a ton of respect.

I predict that she will suspend her campaign after Texas and Pennsylvania go to Obama. He won’t have enough delegates to win outright. But, he will have won the last X number of states. He will still have infinite money. Clinton will have her money drying up, like back in December/January. And, the inevitable will have become increasingly obvious.

Even now, with the first contests after Super (”Duper”) Tuesday completed, Obama has won them all. This even though Clinton had sufficient funds and sufficient time to compete in each of those contests.

However, I am in no rush for this to end. I like the attention being focused on our 2 excellent candidates. I like McCain sliding under the radar and still be attacked by the rightwing of his party. That will never close. Even once he gets the rightwing leaders to acquiesce to his nomination, there will be a significant percentage of the rightwing and/or evangelicals who will not vote.

That is huge. Remember that bush needed a massive, unprecedented turnout of these people (3Million+) to win in ‘04. He also had them all in 2000. McCain has none of them. Some will turn out. But, with Obama begin the nominee, they won’t get that exercised. What I mean is that those who are not categorical racists won’t get that excited. However, if Clinton won the nomination, they would be very motivated to vote against her, even if it meant that McCain (gasp) would win.

So, Clinton can take her time, but not too much time (!), to decide that she has no chance to win. Those primaries are March 4. That should be soon enough. I predict Clinton will suspend her campaign on March 5.

Let’s see how it goes.

And, gosh, this is a hellof a lot of fun.

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It is obvious to me now, after Super Tuesday, that there is really nothing to stop Obama from winning the nomation. And, then after winning the nomination, there is really nothing stopping Obama from beating McCain with a stick.

First, the DNC nomination.  It’s very obvious where the momentum is. Clinton was up 20 points all across the country just a couple of weeks ago. On Tuesday, Obama won 14 states, with New Mexico still in the balance. The states that are having an election on Saturday favor Obama pretty big.

Second, money. Obama is rolling in it. Obama keeps rolling in it. $30M just last month. Another $5 or $6M in the last couple of days. Clinton, OTOH, has no money.  She had to loan herself a huge amount of money just to stay in it through Super Tuesday. She has her people working without pay. She cannot continue this way. Once the losses continue, any remaining contributions will dry up completely. I don’t see her surviving more than a couple of weeks more. I know that all the ‘experts’ are saying that this will last for months. I just don’t see it.

Third, Obama’s supporters are coming from all over. He has supporters from all walks of life, both genders, all races, all parties, everywhere. Clinton’s support is really only coming from old line Democrats. Her win in New Hampshire was more of a poke in the eye to the media which was beating up her for her tears. It hasn’t continued. CA and NY, I attribute to momemtum.

Fourth, the general election. Harken back to what I said about Obama’s support. He has support from everywhere.  Most importantly, Obama has support from Independents and moderate Republicans. Even after the gop attacks him legitimately for having no experience, I don’t think that that will buy McCain that many votes. Obama has general appeal, a great presence, a great way of talking. He has charisma.

Obama has other advantages as well. Because he has minimal experience, he has no real hypocrisy to catch him on. He has no record.  Edwards hit him on the worst thing that Obama had, i.e. he voted ‘present’ on a bunch of anti-choice laws in the state Senate of Ill. Yawn. If it didn’t make a difference to the primary voters, it definitely won’t make a difference to the general election voters.

Fifth, McCain. McCain is currently viewed as a ’straight talker’. it’s a myth. Any decent campaign will expose him as not a straight talker. His biggest problems however lie in the area where he hasn’t flipped back and forth. He wants the war in Iraq to go on 100 years. That won’t fly with 72% of the population. Iraq floats around between the 1st subject on people’s minds to the 3rd thing on people’s minds. But, it never gets lower than 3rd. And, McCain’s opinion alone, along with his ’surge’ mentality, will turn off a ton of people.

McCain believes in lower taxes. The majority of the population wants the budget back in balance. Lower taxes aren’t going to cut it.

Remember when I said earlier that Clinton has a lot of people who should support her, who are categorically opposed to her? They won’t vote for her regardless of what she does. It’s not her fault. It just is. Well, McCain has that problem with his base. The 20%+ of the population that are pro-war who should be completely behind him are not. Then there are those evangelicals, who should come out in droves for the GOP nominee, won’t vote for McCain. They’re a solid 10-15% too, with some overlap of the 1st group. Tack on the fact that Obama is a pretty religious guy. I haven’t heard him talk about religion, but I’ve heard some religious people talk about how they like the way that Obama talks. Remember too that bush needed all his evagelical support both in 2000 and 2004 to win his narrow, oh so narrow, “wins”.  Anything short of that, and the Democrat wins.

Democrats are leading on every single topic that is interesting to the electorate. Obama espouses all of those wins. Even Obama’s cautious health care plan will win in the general election. Clinton’s is a lot more controversial. Clinton is a lot more controversial. Everything that Clinton does is a lot more controversial.  Obama takes an opposite approach.

I just don’t see a path where Obama doesn’t win the nomination and the general election.

Thank god.

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1.  She triangulates like crazy. Triangulation is so ’90s. And, it so disgusting with this group of gop in office. These guys are 10 times worse than the gop that her husband had to deal with. I don’t like her position on her vote for the war. The vote for war, while not acceptable, can be excused, at least by me, given a decent set of excuses and a decent mea culpa (see Edwards, John.) She didn’t give any decent excuse. She didn’t give a decent mea culpa. She continued to support the war up until the point where she realized that it was going to cost her primary votes.

2. I don’t like the way that she’s run her campaign. Running as a front-runner? Really? I don’t care about the lead that she had. The whole concept was wrong. She needed to introduce herself (re-introduce herself)  to Democrats at least. Living in CA, I really knew anything about her. I knew that she is smart. I knew that she positioned herself more conservative than I like my Democrats.

3. Bill Clinton has been awful during this primary. He has defended Hillary to a point where just about everyone is disgusted. (See point #3). I don’t remember Bill defending Gore or Kerry. I dont’ remember Bill attacking bush at all, despite the many illegalities of this administration. It was only when Hillary started having some problems that he turned into an attack dog.

Further, 2 for the price of 1 doesn’t appeal to me. I cringe at the thought of Bill back in office, despite how much I liked his tenure there. I cringe at the thought of him overshadowing whomever Hillary (and Bill) picks as VP. I cringe at the thought of him overshadowing her. I like it when she’s up on stage without him.

3. The media will never give Hillary a break. This is not her fault. However, I am so tired of the media constantly, _constantly_, attacking her. And, attacking her in unbelievably unfair ways. It’s not fair. It’s not right. But, there is nothing to be done about it. I don’t need the media to attack my next president for the next 8 years. I don’t need another 8 years of bogus investigations, bogus reporting, bogus comments, etc.

4. There are too many people who say categorically that they will not vote for her. This is also not fair. Because we know that people don’t like her unfairly. They don’t really know her. They just have this reflexive hatred for her. However, in a general election, she will not appeal to moderate republicans, Independents, and conservative Democrats. She may still win but it’d be a narrow win, when it should be huge. And, it’d be a …..damm…what si the name….a pyrric victory. Down ballots would be impacted. Congress would be affected negatively. She could get nothing done. We could get nothing done. bush’s transgressions, failings, and out of balance government wouldn’t get fixed.

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1. His Triangulation. Perhaps we need someone who appeals to Independents to win in November. Perhaps he needs to do this ‘hope’ schtick to gain majority appeal.  However, his idealistic appeal is falling on my deaf ears. For one thing, as far as I can tell, he’s just stealing Bill Clinton’s “Man From Hope” campaign line of 1992. It’s ok to steal, but Clinton had a 130+ page book of plans to back him up. And, let’s not pretend that this is how Obama really feels.

2. Reagan had ideas but Clinton did not? Really? It’s another line to appeal to Independents. I know that this is the case.

3. No real words about Iraq. Whatever he has said has been forced from him because of Edwards and the need to win the primaries. And, while I’m on the subject,  I agree with Bill Clinton that Obama hasn’t always been against the war. It’s a nice motif for him now. But, while he may have made a speech before he joined the US Senate against the war (good for him!), he failed completely to do _anything_ to oppose the war after he got elected. He continued to vote for funding. He ignored calls to stop the wa and to stop the war funding.

4. He has no experience in government.No, really, I mean, he has _no_ experience in government.  He has 2 years, i.e. 0 experience, at the federal level. He has < 10 years at the state level. The President of the United States is a big job. In fact, it is a _huge_ job. The president is in charge of the federal government of 100s of 1000s of employees. The president is also in charge of the military. The president leads the nation. The president sets priorities. Bush has shown how incompetent people with a loyal following can do the job, i.e. badly. Someone who has no experience in government will have a hard time doing this job. I don’t care how smart he is. 

Bill Clinton had 12 years at the gubernatorial level running a state government, small though it may have been. He was smart (still is.) Clinton had a very rough first couple of years.  Clinton had come in as a “new Democrat”. He was willing to work across party lines. The Republicans started their intransigence in 1993. It continues to this day, obviously. Is there any chance that a man who hasn’t really fought back against the Clinton onslaught, who has no real experience at the federal level fighting the republican wall of shame, will have more of an ability to fight and win against these republicans, especially given that he is running a campaign of ‘hope’ and ‘change’ than Bill Clinton did?

5. He has no real substance. The gop will attack him relentlessly on this. And, then, the gop will jump on any faux pas. And, he will make mistakes.  Granted this will happen with any Democratic candidate. However, Clinton could beat back gop attacks much better.

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Up to this point, I have been undecided between Hillary and Barack. I happened upon the Obama rally today at UCLA. Michelle Obama was taking the lead. With her was Caroline Kennedy & Oprah.  Suprise appearances by Stevie Wonder and Maria Shriver sparked tremendous ovations. But, what struck me most was Michelle Obama’s speech (I’ll see if I can find the transcript somewhere.) It was extraordinarily well-written and delivered. It really spoke directly to me. As a fan of John Edwards, I’ve always loved what he’s said. But, he didn’t hit the notes as pure as Michelle’s speech did, to me. It was amazing to listen to.

And, it may have me rooting for Obama to win the nomination. Prior to this, I was conflicted. But, that speech alone might be enough to have me leaning over the edge toward Barack.

I had a couple of requests for links. Belatedly, I found some you-tube links, M. Obama 1,
M. Obama 2,
M. Obama 3

I’ll keep looking around for a transcript.

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