I am completely opposed to the current bill to fund the war. I am completely opposed to the official reasons given for presenting the bill to the Congress for a vote, i.e. top Dems were worried about getting ripped by the big bad gop over the memorial day weekend. Oh, boo-f’ing-hoo! Grow up. I’m not usually crass, but jeezz, Reid and Pelosi grow some balls. These guys have approval ratings in the 20s! Nobody gives a damm what they say. They have no credibility.

However, that rant having been said, let me add this. It’s clear that Congress could never pass again the same bill that they just passed that got vetoed. They could never do what my favorite candidate for president (Edwards) said that they should do; i.e. keep on passing the same bill and presenting it to bush. It was a hellof a job getting enough Dems in the House and the Senate to pass it once. It wasn’t going to happen again.

So, given that reality, what to the top Dems do? Do they pass nothing and let the pressure build? Or, do they cut as good as deal as they can now and vow to revisit the issue when bush needs another fix in 4 months. Does anyone have any doubt that the situation will be even worse in 4 months?  So, what will the political pressure be like in 4 more months? Even some of the rabid gopers have been saying that if the situation isn’t better by the fall, they might be willing to back an exit strategy. One more thing to think about, the gop knows very well that they are in big trouble and that bush is dragging them down. They want to drop him as soon as they can. The fall will be their last chance. If they drop him in ‘08, nobody will take them seriously. It’s not clear that anyone will take them seriously anytime in the next decade, but they have to believe that if they dump bush in the fall they have one last chance to prevent yet another landslide loss in Nov ‘08. Americans do not have a long memory. And, their short memory is exacerbated by beltway media that parrots the rightwing mantras.

So, in conclusion, my point is that there were not enough votes to do anything substantial with this bill right now. However, in 4 months, the oppositie will be true. There won’t be any (meaningful) opposition to a bill that starts pulling troops out. It’ll probably be a veto-proof majority. And, even if it’s not, there will be enough continuing sustaining support to continue to pass the same bill.

Dems will be hearing from their base over the next 4 months. They can’t afford to let the base get rabid on them leading up to the ‘08 elections. The only incumbent Democrat who will be immune and will continue down this deathy path will be Lieberman. But, after Jan ‘09, he will truly become irrelevant.